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The survey “Iranians’ Attitudes Toward the 2024 Snap Presidential Election” was conducted from June 17 to June 19, 2024, over a period of 3 days. The results are based on a balanced statistical sample of 77,216 respondents from within Iran. The findings reflect the views of literate individuals over the age of 19 residing in Iran (equal to 90% of Iran’s adult population). Click here to download the report.
According to the survey, with about 10 days remaining until the presidential elections, approximately 22% of the target population stated that they will definitely vote in the election, while about 65% stated that they will not vote; about 12% are still undecided.
The survey showed that about 34% of the population were unaware of the timing of the presidential election (end of June).
Comparing the electoral behavior of respondents in the previous elections (March 2024) with their decision for the upcoming election shows that 85% of those who did not vote in last year’s elections do not intend to participate in this year’s election either. In contrast, 6% of those who did not vote in the previous elections stated that they will vote in the presidential election. Also, 48% of first-time voters (those who can vote for the first time in the presidential election) do not intend to participate in the election, while about 34% of them want to vote.
Among those who intend to vote in the election, Masoud Pezeshkian and Saeed Jalili have more votes compared to other candidates, and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is in third place. About 18% of voters are still undecided about whom to vote for. Among those who are still undecided about participating in the elections, Masoud Pezeshkian has more popularity than other candidates. Additionally, about 15% of those undecided about participating in the elections are likely to cast blank (invalid) votes.
Of those who do not intend to vote in the presidential election or are still undecided, when asked “If you will not vote in the election, what is the main reason for your abstention?,” about 68% stated “opposition to the entire Islamic Republic system” as their reason for not voting; also, 18% of this group cited “the limited powers of the president” and about 8% cited “disqualification of their preferred candidate” as their reasons for not participating in the election.
Of those who want to vote or are still undecided, when asked “If you will vote in the election, what is your main motivation for voting?,” about 50% stated “political participation, exercising the right to vote, and paving the way for improving conditions” as their motivation for voting. Also, 38% of these individuals stated “electing the best candidate, supporting the Islamic Republic and the Supreme Leader, and disappointing the enemies” as their main motivation for voting. On the other hand, 8% stated that they vote “out of compulsion or to have a stamp in their ID card.”
One survey question evaluated people’s views on various speculations in society regarding the cause of the helicopter crash of Ebrahim Raisi and his companions. About 51% believe that “internal power struggles within the regime played a role in this crash.” About 13% think that “natural factors played a role in this crash” and 6% believe in the role of “sabotage by foreign countries” in the helicopter crash.
In this survey, participants were asked whether they consider participation in protests (such as street protests in past years) or participation in elections (such as presidential elections) as a more effective method for creating change in the country’s conditions. About one-third of the target population (30%) consider participation in protests as a more effective method, while about 19% consider participation in elections as a more effective method. Also, about one-quarter of the population (26%) consider neither of these two methods effective for creating change in the country’s conditions.
