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Will Iranians participate in the 2024 elections? The survey “Iranians’ Turnout in the 2024 Elections” was conducted over 24 hours on February 28th, 2024 (two days before the election day). The results of this report are based on a balanced sample, including 28,578 respondents from inside Iran. The findings of this report reflect the views of literate individuals over 19 years old residing in Iran (equivalent to 90% of the adult population of Iran).
Click here to download the full report.
Survey summary
The results of this survey show that two days before the elections, about 74% do not want to participate in the parliamentary elections, and 75% do not intend to participate in the Assembly of Experts election; about 16% intend to participate in these two elections and vote for the vetted candidates. About 2% also intend to cast blank (or invalid) votes into the ballot boxes. Additionally, about 8% are still undecided about participating in the parliamentary elections, and 7% are undecided about participating in the Assembly of Experts election.
Those who do not want to vote or are still undecided were asked, “If you will not vote in the elections, what is the “main reason” for your abstention?” 59% stated “ opposition to the overall system of the Islamic Republic” as their reason for not voting; also, 20% “the lack of free and effective elections in the Islamic Republic,” 14% “ To protest against the poor performance of the previous parliament,” and just over 1% “the disqualification of my preferred candidates in these elections” were mentioned as the reasons for not participating in the elections.
Those who want to vote or are still undecided were asked, “If you do vote in the elections, what is your main motivation for voting?” 58% stated “electing competent representatives, supporting the Islamic Republic and the Supreme Leader, and disappointing the enemies” as their motivation for voting; also, 22% “political participation, exercising the right to vote, and preserving the republican element of the Islamic Republic” were identified as their primary motivation for voting. On the other hand, 13% stated they vote “out of compulsion” or “to have a stamp on my ID card.”
Considering that the target population of GAMAAN’s surveys only includes literate individuals (i.e., about 90% of the adult population) and considering that voter turnout is usually slightly higher among illiterate individuals than the average population, it can be estimated that voter turnout will be between 25% to 30%.
