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The survey “Iranians’ Attitudes Toward the 12-Day War” was conducted across Iran from September 24 to 28, 2025, over a five-day period with the voluntary collaboration of the Psiphon VPN network. The results are based on a balanced statistical sample of 30,372 respondents from inside Iran. The findings reflect the opinions of literate Iranian residents aged 15 and older and are generalizable to this target population with a 95% credibility level and a 5% credibility interval.
The full report is available by clicking here.
SURVEY SUMMARY
About 44% of the population held the Islamic Republic of Iran responsible for starting the war, while 33% blamed Israel for initiating it, and 16% believed that both sides were equally at fault.
More than half of the population (51%) believed that Israel was successful and achieved its objectives in the 12-Day War. In contrast, 16% thought the Islamic Republic had been more successful, while 19% said neither side had reached its goals.
Among emotions experienced during the war, “anger at the Islamic Republic” ranked highest, reported by 42% of the population. Next were “worry about the future” (38%), “anger at Israel” (30%), “hope for the future” (27%), “fear of [one’s own] death or losing loved ones” (21%), and “grief and mourning” for those killed in the war (17%).
Regarding reactions to war events and consequences, a majority (73%) said they were deeply upset by civilian casualties. Other events that provoked strong distress included “direct attacks on Iranian territory” (46%), “killing of nuclear scientists” (30%), and the “attack on Evin Prison” (27%). About one-fifth of the population was also distressed by the “destruction of nuclear facilities” (22%) and the “killing of military commanders” (20%). The event that evoked the least emotional impact was the “attack on the state broadcaster (IRIB)”, upsetting only 15% of respondents.
Concerning the nature of the war, 63% believed that “the 12-Day War was a war between Israel and the Islamic Republic, not the Iranian people,” while 30% disagreed. Similarly, one-third (33%) viewed the war as a national–patriotic war, whereas over half (52%) rejected that characterization.
Regarding the Islamic Republic’s performance during the war, 34% believed that “the Islamic Republic was able to defend the people against Israel’s attacks,” while 58% said it failed to protect the population.
As for the performance of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, 27% evaluated it positively, while 58% rated it negatively during the 12-Day War.
Concerning the end of the war, 62% believed that “Trump’s intervention played a key role in ending the 12-Day War and bringing about a ceasefire,” while 22% disagreed.
A clear majority (69%) believed that “the Islamic Republic should stop calling for the destruction of Israel,” while 20% opposed this idea.
About 62% agreed that “the Islamic Republic should negotiate directly with the United States to resolve its disputes,” while 22% opposed direct talks.
On uranium enrichment, about 47% agreed that “to prevent another war, the Islamic Republic should stop enriching uranium,” while 36% disagreed.
Opinions on the missile program were polarized: 46% believed that “Iran’s missile program has increased the country’s security,” while 43% disagreed.
Regarding nuclear weapons, 49% opposed Iran’s development of nuclear arms, while 36% believed that “Iran should build nuclear weapons.” About 15% expressed no opinion.
On the war’s impact on household economics, 56% said the war had affected their family’s economic situation “very much” or “somewhat,” while 39% said it had little or no impact.
When asked about the likelihood of a similar war occurring in the future, 34% rated the chance as “very likely” and 26% as “somewhat likely.” In contrast, 14% saw it as “unlikely” and 8% as “very unlikely.”
Regarding sources of war news, social media platforms (such as Telegram, Instagram, and X) were the main sources for more than half of respondents (51%). The Iran International TV channel was used by 43%, IRIB (state broadcaster) by 27%, and BBC Persian by 9%.
Concerning the water and electricity supply crisis, an overwhelming 75% blamed domestic mismanagement and inefficiency as the main cause. In comparison, 14% attributed it to natural factors, and only 4% to foreign or international sanctions.
In reaction to the return of international sanctions following the activation of the snapback mechanism, 56% said they were “very concerned” and 19% “somewhat concerned” about its effect on their household economy, while 21% said they were “not very concerned” or “not at all concerned”.
Regarding favorability of countries, asked in this survey, the United States received the most positive ratings (53%) and the least negative (37%) among Iranians. Israel ranked second with 39% positive and 48% negative views. Among the eight countries included in the survey, Russia (68% negative) and the United Kingdom (65% negative) received the highest negative ratings. Majorities also expressed negative views toward China (58%) and Turkey (53%). About half (49%) viewed Saudi Arabia negatively, while one-third (30%) viewed it positively. Regarding the European Union, 38% expressed a positive view and 46% a negative one.
Regarding Israel’s actions in Gaza, 43% “strongly” and 14% “somewhat” agreed that “many of Israel’s military actions in Gaza could be considered war crimes.” In contrast, 24% strongly or somewhat disagreed, and 19% had no opinion.
In this survey conducted after the 12-Day War, the proportion of respondents favoring the overthrow of the Islamic Republic increased by 6% compared to last year. Meanwhile, the share of those favoring “structural transformation and transition” declined by 3%. The proportions identifying as reformist or principlist remained unchanged.
Regarding the most effective way to bring about change in the country, about one-third (31%) considered civil protests the most effective method. Next, 18% favored “foreign pressure and intervention” as an effective strategy. Additionally, 14% considered “participation in elections” a viable method for change, while 6% chose “violent struggles”. About 13% said none of these methods were effective, and 17% expressed no opinion.
