Summary of GAMAAN’s survey on the 2020 parliamentary elections in Iran
February 10, 2020
Find here the full summary of GAMAAN’s survey on the 2020 parliamentary elections in Iran.
This survey was conducted between January 30th and February 5th, with more than 43,000 respondents, 90% of which are residing in Iran. The following figures are derived after refining the sample and weighting the sample of Iranian residents, based on sex, age, educational levels, geographical distribution, and electoral behavior in the 2017 presidential election. The findings reflect the opinions of literate people over the age of 19 in Iran (equal to 85% of the eligible voters) and can be generalized to this population with a 95% confidence level and an error margin of 5%.
According to this survey (Feb. 2020), 81% of the target population announced they would not vote in the upcoming parliamentary elections. This figure was 67% in GAMAAN’s survey of March 2019.
Responding to the question “what is the main cause of today’s problems in Iran,” 69% recognized the “policies of the Islamic Republic,” 6.5% considered “the USA and its sanctions,” and 20% indicated “both equally” as the main cause(s).
According to the survey results, 56% of the target population approve of street protests (such as the November 2019 protests) and believe that such protests will be effective in the long run. Also, 24% agree with street protests but consider them ineffective. In contrast, 20% oppose street protests.
According to the survey results, in a free referendum, 76% would say “NO” to the Islamic Republic, 15% would say “YES” to the Islamic Republic, and 9% say they have no definitive answer and will decide depending on circumstances. In the GAMAAN survey conducted in March 2019, 71% reported they would say “NO” to the Islamic Republic in a free referendum.
The full report of the survey is available here (in Persian) and includes an explanation of the methodology and weighting tables.