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What do Iranians think about the upcoming 2024 elections? Do they view protests as more effective in changing the country?
The survey “Iranians’ Attitudes Towards the 2024 Elections” was conducted from January 31st to February 7th, 2024. The results of this report, which can be downloaded here, are based on balancing and weighting a sample of 58,015 respondents from within Iran. The findings reflect the views of the literate population above 19 years old (around 90% of Iran’s adult population).
Approximately 15% of respondents intend to vote in the upcoming Islamic Consultative Assembly elections, while 77% say they will not vote, and about 8% are undecided. Comparison with a survey conducted in July 2023 shows that those undecided decreased from about 18% to 8%. These undecided voters became non-voters as the percentage of voters only increased by 1%.
About 38% of the population were unaware of the timing of the Islamic Consultative Assembly elections scheduled for March.
A comparison of electoral behavior shows that 39% of those who voted in the 2019 Islamic Consultative Assembly elections do not intend to vote this year. Among first-time voters, 65% do not intend to vote, while approximately 27% do.
If a free referendum with the question “Islamic Republic: Yes or No?” were held today, around 75% would vote “No,” 16% “Yes,” and about 9% are unsure.
Participants were asked about their preferred method for change—elections or protests. One-third view protests as more effective, 13% favor elections, and another one-third see neither method as effective.
The survey also gauged views on the Israel-Hamas conflict, with about 35% blaming Hamas as the primary party responsible for the conflict, 20% Israel, and 31% both parties.
